Proposal Risk scores a futarchy proposal from pass-market and fail-market TWAP math plus Umbra-style attack-pattern / wallet signals. Umbra is the published HIGH-RISK case; that proposal failed.
Gray bars on the first chart are the pass threshold. Select one or more protocols — charts redraw from the scored pass/fail TWAPs and wallet / attack-pattern signals.
The score combines pass/fail market outcome math with these Umbra-style wallet and attack-pattern detectors.
Fresh wallet with no prior history
Cross-chain / bridge funding
Accumulation trimmed to exact proposal-stake threshold
Stake recovered and reused in the decision market
Clustered fixed-size cadence trades
A proposal passes when pass-market TWAP beats fail-market TWAP by at least the pass threshold. pass edge = ((passTWAP − failTWAP) / failTWAP) × 100 · -16.55% against +3.00% · published spread -16.56%.
Net Pass Volume Tilt uses economic alignment (pass-buy & fail-sell vs pass-sell & fail-buy): ~46% / ~54% · fail-aligned.
MetaDAO launch-template pass thresholds: team-sponsored −3%, non-team +3%.
Public notes on 01Resolved, MetaDAO, and the computational surface.