Umbra · 8sysa3XPrvKPmUA4qoZCn9h4vp7Mb45Ynezg542nui8Q · trader EJGW…Uvaxs · failed
Pass-market TWAP versus fail-market TWAP against the pass threshold decides whether the proposal passed or failed.
-16.55% against +3.00% threshold · published spread -16.56%
-0.0800 · ~46% pass-aligned / ~54% fail-aligned
Umbra-style wallet and attack-pattern detectors. Each flag is one signal in the score.
| Flag | Signal | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| FIRE | Fresh wallet with no prior history | first seen 4d before proposal; prior history=false |
| FIRE | Cross-chain / bridge funding | deBridge from base; $148,930 |
| FIRE | Accumulation trimmed to exact proposal-stake threshold | bought 508,690, sold 8,690, final 500,000 vs required 500,000 |
| FIRE | Stake recovered and reused in the decision market | recovered after 8s; reusedInDecisionMarket=true |
| FIRE | Clustered fixed-size cadence trades | 40 × $100 trades, median interval 60s |
A pass threshold that rises with treasury share (+3.00% + 20pp × 62%) = +15.40%.
The attacker’s intra-window spike printed +12.47%. Against the scaled threshold it would not have cleared.
Source: James & Drew, 01Resolved, 5 August 2026.