Market — MetaDAO, futarchy, ownership coins
Formulas and microstructure live in 03-methods.md. This note is the landscape 01Resolved is levered to.
Mechanism (short)
Futarchy: paired conditional markets price the org if a proposal passes vs fails. It executes only if pass TWAP beats fail TWAP by a threshold in the TWAP window. Trades are classified by economic exposure (pass-buy and fail-sell are pass-aligned), not surface direction.
Ownership coins (MetaDAO ICO framework, first launch Apr 2025 — MtnDAO): high-float fair issuance, proceeds in an onchain treasury under decision-market control, program-enforced monthly spend, IP in a DAO-linked entity, team tokens behind an 18-month cliff + performance milestones.
Ownership Score (20–21 Jul 2026): daily, wallet score += USD holdings with 1%/day decay; META weighted 25%; retroactive to 115K+ wallets. Up to 50% of Rip Cars was allocated by score. Flagship findings: 170 wallets (0.15%) hold 50% of score; score-allocated Rip Cars wallets kept 63% of tokens on day 1 vs 18% for others. Crude, but better than allocating without it. Individual scores were publicly disputed; MetaDAO says the formula may change.
MetaDAO
- Launchpad live 9 Apr 2025. Founders: Proph3t and Kollan House. SF, ~1–10 people. ~$12.1M raised (Paradigm $2.2M in 2024 + $9.9M OTC Oct 2025 from Paradigm/Variant/6MV). Pantera is not an investor — its Feb 2024 $50K META buy was rejected by the market.
- Revenue: FutarchyAMM 0.5% (fully to MetaDAO since Dec 2025) + Meteora LP. 01Resolved measured ~$127K (Jun) → ~$245K (Jul), +93% MoM. Job listings have claimed ~$9M/yr; treat that as unverified.
- Template: 200K–1.5M token stake; one live proposal per DAO; 3-day markets; lagging TWAP with 24h pre-record; thresholds −3% team / +3% non-team. “MetaDAO 2.0” is community shorthand (proposal-type thresholds, NAV-guided buys/sells, elected committee), not a named MetaDAO program.
- Traction: 2025 projects raised $96M combined; Umbra ICO $154M committed; Rip Cars 128×; ownership-coin mcap $159M (9 Aug). META on Coinbase.
Adjacent venues
Futardio (permissionless; high miss rate), Star.fun (internet rounds), Spark (IdeaCoins; Jurassic $RAWR), plus Crafts, Fair.Club, Street, Bedrock, Combinator. Expansion surface for 01Resolved’s adapters — see 05-role.md.
Scale (their July 2026 snapshot)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Tracked treasury | $34.42M |
| Decision-market volume (month) | $5.86K |
| Proposals resolved (month) | 1 |
| Completed launches (month) | 4 |
| Launches / launched mcap | 12 / ~$100M |
The market is tiny. The bet is trajectory plus owning the data layer if this becomes a real capital market.
Monthly series (their numbers; June was restated in the July issue — $1.42M/200 wallets vs $1.39M/165). Volume is lumpy: Solomon Gigabus alone was $2.67M in April.
| Month | DM volume | Wallets | Proposals | Treasury | MetaDAO rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26 | $2.31M | 158 | 6 | – | – |
| Apr 26 | $2.84M | 155 | 4 | $31.3M | – |
| Jun 26 | $1.42M* | 200* | 7* | $28.8M | ~$127K |
| Jul 26 | $5.9K | 13 | 1 | $34.4M | ~$245K |
Stress-tests they covered
- Umbra (Aug 2026) — fresh wallet, deBridge from Base, exact 500K stake, $1.5M (~62% of treasury) request. Failed 19.55% below threshold; attacker cost $4,623. Pools ~$52K. This repo’s scorer is that pattern.
- Ranger — market liquidated the treasury.
- ZKFG/Zinc — revenue kept off-treasury → buyout, DAO dissolved.
- Flash Trade — winding down unless acquired.
- Thin-market governance: a $2M MetaDAO allocation passed on ~$3K volume.
Deaths so far: mtnCapital, Ranger, ZKFG, Flash Trade, plus FairScale on Combinator.
Competitors
| Player | Overlap |
|---|---|
| Blockworks | TTF disclosure + MetaDAO revenue dashboards. 01Resolved claims the layer under TTF (verification). Most plausible partner/acquirer — and the incumbent risk. |
| Token Terminal | Fee-based financials; no futarchy, no wallet-level books |
| Messari / DeepDAO | Broad research or token-voting treasuries; no decision markets |
| Dune / Flipside | Their explicit foil: unverified, stale, incomparable |
| Pine Analytics | Nearest competing research coverage |
Nobody else joins wallet-to-statement NAV with decision-market microstructure. The risk is Blockworks coming down or MetaDAO building this in-house.