Proposal Risk · loyal

Futarchy proposal score

Loyal · LOYAL-003 · passed

Treasury (31 Jul 2026)

$339,075

Spot

$0.1050

NAV/AS

$0.1300

Prem / disc

-16.40%

Pass-market TWAP

$1.0250

Fail-market TWAP

$1.0000

Missed pass threshold

-1.00%

Treasury request

$182K

Proposal outcome

Passed

Volume tilt

pass-aligned

Pass / fail market math

Pass-market TWAP versus fail-market TWAP against the pass threshold decides whether the proposal passed or failed.

pass edge = ((passTWAP − failTWAP) / failTWAP) × 100

+2.50% against +1.50% threshold

Net Pass Volume Tilt = [(PassBuy + FailSell) − (PassSell + FailBuy)] / vol

0.4800 · ~74% pass-aligned / ~26% fail-aligned

Umbra-style wallet and attack-pattern detectors. Each flag is one signal in the score.

Flag	Signal	Evidence

Source: 01Resolved, Ownership Coin Monthly, July 2026, as of 31 July 2026.